seriea report generated at: 17:33:29 13/11/2022
value bets
| Team/Fixture |
Market |
Calc Prob (%) |
Bookies Odds |
Kelly Criterion |
Alpha (%) |
Bookies |
| ac milan v. fiorentina |
O2_5 |
56.82% |
1.98 |
0.35 |
12.0 |
William Hill |
| ac milan v. fiorentina |
home_win |
63.69% |
1.72 |
0.43 |
10.0 |
William Hill |
| juventus v. lazio |
O1_5 |
73.53% |
1.40 |
0.55 |
3.0 |
William Hill |
| juventus v. lazio |
home_win |
54.95% |
2.05 |
0.33 |
13.0 |
William Hill |
| ac milan v. fiorentina |
BTTS_Y |
59.52% |
1.90 |
0.38 |
13.0 |
William Hill |
| juventus v. lazio |
O2_5 |
49.26% |
2.30 |
0.27 |
13.0 |
William Hill |
| AC Milan |
O1_5 |
57.80% |
1.85 |
0.35 |
7.0 |
Bet365 |
| AC Milan |
O2_5 |
30.77% |
3.75 |
0.12 |
16.0 |
Bet365 |
| Juventus |
O0_5 |
79.37% |
1.29 |
0.64 |
3.0 |
Betway |
| Juventus |
O1_5 |
47.17% |
2.25 |
0.24 |
6.0 |
Bet365 |
team backtest
| Team |
Fixture |
Team xG |
| Lazio |
juventus v. lazio |
1.13 |
| Juventus |
juventus v. lazio |
1.59 |
| AC Milan |
ac milan v. fiorentina |
1.96 |
| Fiorentina |
ac milan v. fiorentina |
1.19 |
goal probability matrix
| Team/Fixture |
zero |
one |
two |
three |
four |
five |
| Lazio |
32.1% |
36.5% |
20.7% |
7.8% |
2.2% |
0.5% |
| Juventus |
20.3% |
32.4% |
25.8% |
13.7% |
5.5% |
1.7% |
| AC Milan |
14.1% |
27.6% |
27.1% |
17.7% |
8.7% |
3.4% |
| Fiorentina |
30.4% |
36.2% |
21.6% |
8.6% |
2.6% |
0.6% |